Statewide cash rent in Iowa dropped $1 per acre in 2026, to $270 per crop acre. Iowa State’s 2026 survey shows it. The northwest crop reporting district moved the other way, up $2 per acre. The district breakdown in the same survey puts Sioux at $332, Lyon at $331, and Delaware at $325, the three highest county averages in the state. A statewide number tells you about farmland as an asset class. It stops telling you anything useful the moment you are pricing one farm. The six auctions running September 24 through November 11 will price the ground you own, and the per-CSR2-point comparison across Clay, Buena Vista, Palo Alto, Emmet, Cherokee, and Dickinson is the tool that turns an auction result into a decision.
Key Takeaways
- Statewide Iowa cash rent fell $1 to $270 per crop acre in 2026. The northwest district rose $2 per acre. Sioux County leads the state at $332.
- Iowa farmland values were up 4% year-over-year in Q2 2026 while the five-state district sat flat. In real terms the district fell 3.7%, the largest real decline since Q3 2016.
- Two farms with a 94.8 CSR2 sold roughly three months apart, $27 per point apart, about $2,600 per acre. The per-CSR2-point gap is the number that drives a decision, not a district average.
- Five Clay County sales inside eight months ran from $7,000 to $22,100 an acre. A three-fold spread inside one county line, which no average shows.
- Six auctions run September 24 through November 11. Each one prices a known tract against a known comp in public, and the bid does not lie.
The Number: Where Iowa and the Northwest District Actually Landed
Start with what the Fed says. The Chicago Fed’s second quarter survey covers five states, and the district as a whole came in flat in nominal terms. The August 2026 AgLetter puts it plainly. In real terms, after inflation adjustment, district values fell 3.7% year-over-year, the largest real decline since Q3 2016. Looking into the third quarter, 5% of lenders expect values to rise, 81% expect them stable, and 14% expect them to fall. The loan-to-deposit ratio hit 80.7%, the highest since the Fed began collecting the data in the 1970s. Lenders credited data center, solar, and wind investment with helping hold values up.
Iowa is not where that average is going. Iowa was up 4% year-over-year in Q2 per the same survey. Illinois was up 1%. Indiana fell 3%. Wisconsin fell 2%. When the district sits flat, Iowa is the state pulling the number up. The first quarter survey was more explicit. The May 2026 AgLetter reported Iowa up 2% from April 1, 2025 to April 1, 2026, and 56% of lenders called farmland overvalued. By the second quarter, 43% said the same. That is a market at a ceiling, not a market in decline.
The rent picture tells the same story in reverse. ISU’s 2026 survey shows the statewide average down $1, to $270 per crop acre per the survey page. The northwest crop reporting district rose $2 per acre per the district breakdown in the PDF. The east-central and southwest districts dropped $5. If you own ground in the northwest district, the statewide number is telling you about the wrong farm. My read: the statewide rent decline is real, and it is the right signal to watch. But it is the signal for the districts where the survey shows a drop of $5 per acre. An Iowa respondent in the August survey put it directly: commodity price volatility and elevated production expenses are the factors weighing most heavily on credit conditions per the AgLetter. The northwest district is not in that squeeze the same way. Sioux at $332 and Lyon at $331 are not counties where a $1 statewide decline is the story. The story up here is that rent held, and in the northwest district, it went up.
The credit picture is the other half. The average interest rate on farm real estate loans is 6.79%, up from 6.74% in the first quarter per the AgLetter. Repayment problems in the district portfolio hit 3.7%, up from 2.9% a year ago, the highest reading since 2020 per the same survey. It is not a value collapse. It is a cash flow squeeze. A tenant who is struggling to make the loan payment is a tenant who is not bidding up at auction. A landlord who is watching the payment rate go up is a landlord who is more willing to sell. The gap between those two is where the fall slate prices the block.
Why a Statewide Average Fails You
A statewide average blends CRP acres, tillable ground, marginal tillable, and commercial-adjacent parcels into one number. It smooths out the spread that actually drives a sale or a lease decision. A 95 CSR2 Galva-Sac-Primghar tract in Buena Vista and a marginal 60 CSR2 with heavier Sac and lighter topsoil in a low section are not the same asset, even though they are the same state. The per-acre gap can run 30% or more, and a statewide average buries that gap. You cannot make a decision on a number that does not show you the spread.
The online estimating tools that use statewide data get it wrong for the same reason. They are not calibrated to the ground you own. The September 1 lease deadline that just passed is the moment most owners feel the gap, because the lease renews at the old rate unless you renegotiate, and the old rate is not the northwest district rate.
The better read is a per-CSR2-point comparison across the counties you own in, built from what actually sold, not from what the state reports. The previously sold record does that. It shows what changed hands in this block, in what quantity, at what CSR2, in what soil series. It is the closest thing to a local truth, and it is the one that matters.
Per CSR2 Point: Two Sales, Roughly Three Months Apart, $27 a Point
Two sales from our own record make the point. In March 2026, we sold a 75-acre tract in Clay County, Logan Township, at $15,600 per acre with an average CSR2 of 94.8 and Gillett Grove, McCreath, Ransom, and Annieville soils. The listing page carries the full detail. That is $165 per CSR2 point. Roughly three months earlier, in December 2025, we sold the Ludvigson farm in Cherokee County, Sheridan Township, in two tracts by the choice method at $18,200 per acre for the first tract and $17,800 per acre for the second. The first tract carried a 94.8 CSR2 with Galva, Marcus, and Primghar soils, which is $192 per point. The second carried a 93.5 CSR2, which is $190 per point. Two farms, nearly identical suitability, roughly three months apart, one in Clay County and one in Cherokee, $27 per point apart. That is roughly $2,600 per acre, which on the 75-acre Clay County tract is about $195,000 in total value. It is not a rounding error. It is the spread between a Clay County sale and a Cherokee County sale, and it is the number a buyer in either county should be comparing before they bid.
The June 17 Clay County auction brought $15,800 per acre on 82.75 surveyed acres in Logan Township. The listing page carries the result. Per acre it sits between the two above. If you are setting a 2027 cash rent off CSR2, the per-point number is the starting point, not the statewide average. If you are pricing a sale, the per-point number is the comp set, not the district figure.
The Clay County Spread: Five Sales, $7,000 to $22,100, Eight Months
Here is the point in one county. From December 2025 to August 2026, we sold five pieces of Clay County ground, and the prices ran from $7,000 to $22,100 an acre.
- August 20, 2026: 83 acres in Douglas Township, cropland, timber, and recreation, at $7,000 per acre.
- June 17, 2026: 82.75 surveyed acres in Logan Township, at $15,800 per acre.
- March 25, 2026: 75 acres in Logan Township, at $15,600 per acre, 94.8 CSR2, which is $165 per point.
- February 19, 2026: 79.63 surveyed acres in Lone Tree Township, at $22,100 per acre.
- December 18, 2025: 147.56 acres in Gillett Grove Township, in two tracts at $16,100 per acre.
That is a three-fold spread, $7,000 to $22,100, inside a single county line, in eight months. A statewide average will not show you that. A county average will not show you that. The Douglas Township sale is timber and recreation ground, and it priced at the bottom of the range. The Lone Tree sale at $22,100 is the top, and it is the comp the November 6 Lone Tree auction will test. Only the March 25 sale publishes a CSR2, and that is the only one we run per-point on. The rest are priced per acre, and the per-acre spread is the number that matters for a buyer weighing two tracts in the same county. The whole case for a local read is in that list.
The Fall Slate: Six Auctions, Six Real Tests
The fall auction season is the real test of value. A private treaty listing can sit for six months and never tell you what the market will bear. An auction puts a price on the line, in public, against a known comp set, and the bid does not lie. That is why the fall slate matters more than any survey number for a landowner making a decision in the next 90 days.
Six auctions are on the calendar. Sioux County sits just outside the core block, but its rent data is in the same northwest district, so the September 30 Sioux auction is in the slate. Dickinson is in the block but has no auction on the current slate.
- September 24, Buena Vista County. 218.50 acres in Scott Township. Last December we sold 113 acres in Elk Township, Buena Vista, at $14,500 an acre. Scott is different ground, and this bid will tell you how much different. The full auction calendar is here.
- September 30, Sioux County. 147 acres in Holland and Lynn Townships. Sioux carries the highest county cash rent in Iowa at $332 per crop acre per the ISU district breakdown. The open question is whether the sale price is tracking the rent, and this is the one auction on the slate that answers it.
- November 4, Emmet County. 1,302 cropland acres in 13 tracts across Ellsworth and Lincoln Townships. Six weeks ago we sold 564.04 acres in O’Brien County in eight tracts, and the tracts came in at $19,000, $17,700, $18,400, $18,400, $17,700, $21,500, $17,800, and $17,800 an acre. That is a $3,800 spread across eight tracts in a single sale, which is exactly why we split a farm. The tracts strategy post covers it.
- November 5, Palo Alto County. 158.77 surveyed acres in Vernon Township. There is no recent Palo Alto comp on our board, which is the point. This sale sets it for the winter closing window.
- November 6, Clay County. 75.7 acres in Lone Tree Township. In February we sold 79.63 acres in Lone Tree at $22,100 an acre, the top price on our board this year. Same township, roughly nine months later, nearly the same acreage. This bid tells you whether that number is still there.
- November 11, Cherokee County. 153.15 acres in Sheridan Township. In December we sold the Ludvigson farm in Sheridan at $18,200 and $17,800 an acre across two tracts. Different farm, same township, eleven months later. That result is the standing comp and this auction tests it.
The absolute auction versus sealed bid choice determines whether the price is a public bid or a private one. Either way, the number that comes out of the ring is a number you can use, not a number you have to estimate.
My read going into the fall slate: values are not running, and they are not falling. Iowa is up 4% in Q2, the district is flat, and 81% of lenders see it staying flat. The rent side is where the pressure shows up. The northwest district rent went up. The statewide rent went down. The gap between those two numbers is the story, and the six auctions will confirm it or correct it.
What This Means for Your Farm
If you are holding tillable in the block and your cash rent has not moved in three or more years, the northwest district rent went up $2 per acre and your rent did not. That is a gap, and the gap is money. A farm priced off a three-year-old comp going into a fall auction is leaving money on the table, because the comp it is priced against is not the comp the auction room is using. Get a current read before the fall slate closes. The free farm evaluation uses the local comp database, not a statewide average, and it gives you the number for your specific ground, at your specific CSR2, in your specific section and township.
If you are a buyer, the flat district value plus the Iowa 4% gain is a window for the higher-CSR2 ground, but only if you price the spread correctly. The ground that is the best deal per point is the ground that holds value when the next cycle turns. If your rent went down and you are worried, the statewide number is not the reason. The district went up $2. The statewide went down $1. The six auctions will set the comp against which you can test it.
Subscribe to the Land Notifications list to see the fall auction slate before the public does. The numbers come out of the ring, and they are the numbers that matter.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is now a bad time to sell my farm in northwest Iowa?
Iowa farmland values are up 4% year-over-year in Q2 2026, and the northwest district rent went up $2 per acre. But 43% of lenders called farmland overvalued, and real-term district values fell 3.7%, the largest real decline since 2016 per the AgLetter. The answer is not sell or hold. The answer is get a current read on your specific ground. The ISU December value survey is the next number to watch before the winter closing window.
My rent went down. Should I be worried?
The statewide average fell $1, but the northwest district rose $2. If your specific rent went down, it is likely because the rent was set above the market and is correcting, or because the tenant negotiated. If the per-point number for your ground is in line with the comp set, the rent is fair. If it is below the comp set, the gap is the money you should be collecting. The six auctions in the fall will set that comp, and the 2027 cash rent decision should be made against it.
Whose numbers should I actually believe?
The ISU cash rental rate survey measures what tenants are paying in cash rent per crop acre, broken out by county and by crop reporting district. The Chicago Fed agricultural credit survey measures what lenders and landowners report about land values and credit conditions across the five-state Seventh District. They track different things. The ISU survey is the rent side, and it is the more useful number for a landlord deciding what to charge. The Fed survey is the value and credit side, and it is the more useful number for a seller deciding whether to list. Both matter. The ISU district breakdown tells you what is happening in your block. The Ag Decision Maker leasing resources cover the timing around the September 1 deadline.
How often should I update my farm’s value?
At least annually, and before any lease decision. The ISU value survey comes out in December, and the cash rent survey in spring. Build your decision window around those releases, or get a current evaluation before the fall auction slate if you are weighing a sale. The number that matters is not the statewide average. It is the comp set for your county, and the six auctions will set it.